I am surprised, but I am also happy. The past year has been unquestionably tense for those interested in Asian Affairs. For the first time in decades there was a seemingly serious, uncontrollable and ugly risk of a catastrophic land war on the Korean Peninsula. As North Korea pursued a defiant barrage of missile and nuclear testing, combined with the bellicose, unpredictable and seemingly erratic threats of Donald Trump, it was a match made in hell. Few people were optimistic of the outcomes. Whilst my gut instinct thought such a war would ultimately not happen, the experience of it was tense, emotional and unsettling. Yet, in a matter of days, the events of last year seem already a million miles away. The unprecedented “U-turn” by Kim Jong-un on being willing to consider denuclearisation has been dubbed a “miracle” by South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Then, before we could even fully digest that, Trump himself says he will be off to Pyongyang to meet Kim. Well… what can I say?

It is easy to get carried away with such news, not least because formal talks have not even begun yet, not to mention the question of what will actually be “placed” on the table itself, where things are likely to get a bit sticky. Still, that is no reason to scorn optimism, as all parties, be it America, North Korea, China, South Korea and Japan, had everything to lose by going down the other route. But what are the most important things to take from this? First of all, Kim Jong-un has limits. It is easy to portray to him as an unstable, insane and unreasonable mad dictator, but this is a stereotype, a Western discourse which floats on cultural and historical cliques which does not reflect the highly subjective reality of politics. Kim certainly may do things the rest of the world does not like or meets with condemnation, but that doesn’t he is a fundamentally irrational actor who does not perceive the environment around him accurately. He has limits, he has boundaries. Whether you think his urge to negotiate is sincere or insincere, he ultimately came to the recognition that if he continued on his current path, it was unlikely to end well for him. Be it via the increasing sanctions on his country, or worse, the unpredictable threats of the man in the White House himself, he knew something had to give. Whether that be actual denuclearisation itself or a simple stabilization of tensions and a turn towards a more “long game” remains to be seen, but the point stands regardless.

Secondly, the rapid turn of events suggests that in contrast to his predecessors, Kim’s political needs are different. It is easy to again simplify North Korea’s politics into a society that is held together by delusion, “brainwashing” and god-like worship of its leaders, but that is again a western cultural connotation which underestimates the complexity of how politics works. In the present day, North Korea is evolving in ways that are not well realized or understood. Despite being a closed society, awareness and influence of the outside world is increasing. North Koreans do not live in “ignorance”, “wanting to be freed” as some patronizingly assume, but are very much conscious of their country’s situation and difference to the outside world. Through a changing economic system and grassroots marketisation, the country’s society is evolving. Young North Koreans in Pyongyang aspire to make money through entrepreneurship, they seek to have consumer goods such as mobile phones, computers and so on. When viewed in this light, Kim Jong-un’s rule depends more upon economic achievements than his father did. Despite the negative affects of nuclear development, this has been a continual theme of his leadership. He has made achieving growth a goal and has concurrently, permitted small reforms in the company. When we consider North Korea’s economy grew by 4% last year, this is not absurd as it seems. North Korea likes to struggle, it likes to resist, it was always willing to take some pain from sanctions, but there are limits. Kim couldn’t row back on that goal. He is young, he has to plan for a long term tenure and people in his country want a better life.

Nevertheless, challenges lie ahead. North Korea’s nuclear program has always served the purpose of being useful leverage in negotiation to get what it wants on its own terms. This overwhelmingly works to Kim’s advantage seen as he has all but completed the country’s capabilities in that regard. This means that if he is to give it up, there will be a catch, presumably a big one too. After the meeting with South Korean officials earlier in the week, they stated North Korea would be willing to give it up if “Security assurances” were given to the country. What does this mean? It’s vague and ambiguous. This could mean the withdrawal of American forces from South Korea completely, something which is likely to go down as a non-starter in Washington. Despite the fact that Trump has seemingly jumped at negotiations with an open mind, he is going to face considerable pressure from hardliners in Washington who will strive for him to give as little concessions as possible. The contradictions in this are visible when we see how the Republican Party has seethed at deals struck by Obama with Iran and Cuba. Trump himself even tried to even strike them down. So that in itself should be sobering.

So optimism or pessimism? If Trump really is the deal-maker he claims himself to be, then let’s hope he can drive a good bargain with Kim Jong-un which ultimately respects the interests of both America and North Korea. If he can do that, then I will have no choice to but to give him credit where credit is due. I believed his approach could never work and I criticized him for inflaming the situation. Of course, we have no tangible results to say it has “worked” yet, but, one thing is for sure is that Trump’s unpredictability and unwillingness to stick to any “conventional” rules has contributed, both directly and indirectly. His seemingly unguessable hints of conflict pushed South Korea to begin engaging the North and then before we know it, we’ve set out on the long road to peace.

Yet it doesn’t end there. His willingness to dive into visiting North Korea itself and meeting Kim Jong-un is huge, sweeping aside boundaries that were simply unimaginable to other American Presidents. That in itself is likely to yield something worthwhile. Whilst I still can never support someone who threatens “fire and fury” against another country in the United Nations General Assembly, or whilst I can never support someone who has been so vulgar in his rhetoric and general approach to everything, it is nevertheless the very fact that Trump is chaotic, that he cares so little for established precedents and acts like a raging bull in a China shop, is what ultimately makes him effective at times. Let’s be brutally honest, if Hilary were president, we wouldn’t be where we are now. When you see it in this light, you realize why many Americans supported him, even if what he stands for is morally repellent and based more times than not, on nonsense. Has the difference been made here? As he likes to say, “let’s wait and see“.

This Friday marks one whole year since the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States. In an election result which shocked the world the previous November, the tycoon had vowed to “Make America Great Again” and thus won the support of enough disillusioned blue collar Americans to win via the electoral vote. After a campaign which was filled with inflammatory rhetoric and unapologetic racism, the warning signs were all there. Anyone with an ounce of sense was concerned as to what might come of a Trump Presidency, but, there was also a minuscule hope that the pressure, expectations and demands of such an elite office would “moderate” his behaviour accordingly…

It didn’t. One year on, the Trump administration has been very much as bad as people feared. The repulsiveness and moral ineptitude which shaped his hugely controversial campaign has continued unabated as the standard bearer of his premiership, all without a shred of self-consciousness, decency or humility to go along with it. Only in the campaign itself did President Obama speak out against Trump, noting that the Presidency of the United States “was not a Reality TV show“. As much as that term may be too generous to describe the present situation, without a doubt Donald’s swelling ego-centrism and childlike tendency to be the centre of all attention has turned the White House into a sour, twisted joke.

Except, it isn’t funny. Trump’s actions and decisions as President have been nothing short of abysmal, perhaps even disgraceful. The race baiting jibes which magnetized his base were unapologetically shoved into the fabric of policymaking itself. Opporunistic travel bans, the branding of entire regions of the world with repulsive language unfit for a President, the endorsement of fascist groups in his allied states, the endorsement of pro-segregation candidates in elections (Roy Moore) and the failure to confront violent white supremacy are but a few of ever the growing mountain of incidences excrementally pouring out of the oval office. Time and time again, the President has shamelessly and willingly utilized racist sentiments to set his narratives and reach out to his “base”.

But that isn’t the end of it. He’s setting off on a rampage of environmental desolation, withdrawing from the most comprehensive climate change in History, now the only country in the world to reject it; he’s piling up a bombfire of Obama era environmental regulations on coal, oil and carbon emissions, some which came in the aftermath of the gulf of Mexico Oil Spill. Beyond that, he is a diplomatic disaster and a danger on the world stage. He has reduced the horrors of nuclear war to the gratification of his own ego, threatening it casually, recklessly and ignorantly in defiance of norms which have long opposed their usage. He has insulted countries, peoples and leaders around the world on a whim, alienating and taunting even his closest allies.

His every achievement has been based on outright lies, hysterical exaggeration and misinformation. On an almost daily basis he claims credit for the rising stock market on twitter, despite that it has been concurrently rising for years. He takes unreserved credence for the U.S economic recovery too, despite the fact it was well in the wings before he came along, never mind that the very nature of the Presidency itself has very little direct power in how to direct the American economy… unless of course it is signing off tax cuts for the ultra wealthy. When has been criticized, he has simply tried to say his predecessor Obama, or “loser” Hilary Clinton are worse. Everything unfavorable to him has been dismissed haughtily as “fake news”, a term he has tweeted statistically once every three days… thus at least over 100 times in a single year. He has emphatically and enthusiastically rejected the truth itself, bolstering the attitude that no legitimate criticism of him is authorized to exist.

So what can be concluded? For all America is globally popular for its iconic culture, films, entertainment, technology and food, Trump, on the other hand stands as the physical embodiment of its “ugly side”, the America the world has despised, than adored. He is a manifestation of the country’s lingering racism and prejudices, the appalling ignorance that persists in some areas of its society, the injustices that continue to drive a country built on “justice”, and of course, the ugly Republican politics which thrives on these morbid sentiments. There should be no doubts amongst any critically minded person that the Trump Presidency is a walking, moral catastrophe with no redeeming features whatsoever. It is ultimately likely as the term progresses, the administration will can grow in its its vulgarity, its detachment from reality and its determination to plague America and the world with a nastier, cheaper and ill-fitted form of politics which will damage the country’s global image for years to come.

Will the decent GOP voters who thought he couldn’t be worse than “Crooked Hilary” re-think their position?

Donald Trump somehow managed to become the President of the United States at the beginning of this year having scraped an election by snapping up a host of working class swing states in the North East and Midwest (despite losing the popular vote). His opponent, Hilary Clinton, was constantly beset as an unpopular and uninspiring candidate radiating the image of a sinister establishment figure who could “not be trusted”. Thus, despite a campaign offset with enormous controversies and serious questions of suitability, Trump was able to claim the day through people who somehow felt he was the “least worst option”, whilst certain Democrat leaning groups failed to turn out in necessary enough numbers to get their candidate over the line.

Six months later, none of the narratives established by Trump’s campaign or his supporters really hold up to scrutiny any more. The very conceptualization that he could “not be worse than Hilary” or that Hilary was truly the “dangerous candidate” to America (in terms of foreign policy) could not look more stupid, or deceptive, in the light of what we have seen already. Alternatively, whilst Hilary failed to inspire many, the numerous warnings which came from her campaign that Trump was truly unfit for office in terms of competence, experience, integrity and leadership could not look more accurate (and I believe that perception is only going to increase as time goes by).

Thus the truth is now, whilst Clinton would not have been an inspirational or particularly loved President, she would not have been the incapable, reckless, dangerous and ridiculous mess we see now. She would not be threatening nuclear war over twitter, or dismissing all criticism of her as “FAKE NEWS” statistically once every thee days. She would not have invoked public outrage by appearing to apologise for the KKK and white supremacists, have withdrawn from the most comprehensive international treaty on climate change in Human history or openly alienated U.S allies around the world. At worst, Hilary would have been “normal”, a continuation of the status quo, but it seems that millions, so lost in disillusion, anger and apathy, forgot just how important a “normal Presidency” ought to be to them, all the way to the point of willingly surrendering that normality and reason for something that would turn out much worse.

Let’s face it, it was obvious as well, Trump is a Trojan horse to the Presidency, yet, I’d say it was still possibly the most poorly disguised and unconvincing Trojan Horse in American history. All empirical evidence, all arguments, all debate, pointed to the fact Trump was blatantly unfit, yet millions of Americans, blinded by their disillusionment and resentment, seemed to just stop caring. In the process, they took for granted everything a”business as usual” Presidency brings; safety, stability, normality. Now, American society is crying out for those things more than ever as the country spirals downwards on a dangerous path towards racialised conflict and disunity.

Thus, six months or so on, the obvious has finally dawned on all but the most extreme of his supporters.